Grocery Bill in 2026 : Which Grocery Items Are Still Getting More Expensive in 2026?

Grocery Bill in 2026: Ask almost any American shopper about their grocery bill in 2026 and you will hear the same story: it still feels expensive. Eggs have become cheaper, yet beef is still painful, the morning coffee still stings, and a bag of candy or a head of lettuce can surprise you at the register. Official statistics show a more complicated picture than “everything is up.”

The newest federal data came out on November 10, 2026, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). The food index rose 0.5 percent in October, with food at home up 0.4 percent and food away from home up 0.5 percent. The beef index alone rose 0.9 percent in the month. Meanwhile, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) updated its Food Price Outlook on October 23, 2026, and it contains the clearest official forecast for what the rest of 2026 and 2027 may look like.

Grocery Bill in 2026

There is one important data caveat. Because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, BLS did not collect October 2025 data, so it cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for most indexes. That is why this article leans on September’s year-over-year numbers for the most recent annual comparisons and on October’s month-to-month changes for the freshest signal. Every figure below is tied to a named source, and a table of official links and an FAQ follow at the end.

1. The big picture: groceries are rising slowly, restaurants faster

ERS’s October update (which uses September data) shows the all-items CPI up 3.7 percent from September 2025, while food prices were 2.5 percent higher. The split matters: grocery prices were up 1.8 percent year over year, while restaurant and other food-service prices were up 3.5 percent.

Looking ahead, ERS forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 2.3 percent in 2026 and 1.0 percent in 2027, and all food to rise 2.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027. That is a little below the long-run average, so the overall grocery story is moderate. The pain is concentrated in specific products.

2. Beef: still expensive, but the pace is changing

Beef is the headline item. Here is how the numbers look at different points this year:

• In January 2026, beef and veal prices were 15 percent higher than a year earlier.
• By March 2026, they were 12.1 percent higher than in March 2025.
• In August, beef and veal prices were 5.9 percent higher than a year earlier.
• In September, beef and veal fell 1.3 percent from August but were still 3.5 percent higher than in September 2025.
• In October, the beef index rose 0.9 percent for the month.

So beef is still getting more expensive, but the year-over-year increase has cooled sharply from the early-2026 peak. Note the difference between a slowing increase and a price drop: prices are still on top of last year’s already high levels. ERS’s annual forecast reflects that. Beef and veal prices are forecast to rise 8.7 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 10.1 percent. That is an average for the whole calendar year, which is why it is higher than the latest monthly year-over-year readings.

Why is beef so costly?

The supply side is tight. USDA estimated 28.5 million beef cows on July 1, 2026, down 1 percent from a year earlier, and the 2026 calf crop is expected at 32.5 million head, down 2 percent. ERS expects beef production to stay below year-ago levels through the end of 2026. Demand has stayed strong too: U.S. beef consumption in 2026 is about 8 percent above its 20-year average, according to the Kansas City Fed.

Is relief coming?

There are early signs upstream. Farm-level cattle prices have fallen for four straight months, down 7.6 percent in September from a year earlier, and wholesale beef was 3.6 percent lower than a year earlier despite a 2.6 percent monthly rise. But rebuilding herds is slow. The Kansas City Fed noted that cattle inventories have historically expanded only after producers retain replacement heifers for two to three years. Retail prices typically lag wholesale moves, so shoppers should not expect a quick drop.

3. Coffee: higher on the shelf, lower on the commodity market

Coffee shows the gap between what you pay and what traders pay. Retail coffee prices were 7.1 percent higher in September 2026 than in September 2025, rising faster than other nonalcoholic beverages. Nonalcoholic beverage prices overall were up 3.8 percent year over year, and ERS forecasts them to rise 4.4 percent in 2026.

October brought a notable shift. Coffee prices fell 3.6 percent during October, according to the CPI report as covered by Fox Business. A market-data post cited by 24/7 Wall St. described it as the largest monthly coffee drop on record, though that claim comes from a social-media summary rather than BLS’s own text, so treat it with some caution.

On the commodity side, futures have been drifting lower. Trading Economics reported coffee at 283.50 cents per pound on October 29, down about 27.6 percent over the previous 12 months. A bigger Brazilian crop is a major reason: Brazil’s 2026 arabica production is expected to rise 34.8 percent to 48.21 million bags, according to Barchart. Low exchange stocks keep the market volatile, so futures can swing.

What it means for you: shelf prices usually follow futures with a delay, so lower commodity prices may reach store shelves in coming months, but nothing is guaranteed.

4. Other items still rising

Sugar and sweets. Prices were 5.5 percent higher in September than a year earlier, driven mainly by candy and chewing gum, a subcomponent that includes most chocolate candy. ERS forecasts a 6.5 percent increase for 2026. This is one of the larger forecast increases among grocery categories.

Fresh vegetables. Retail fresh vegetables were 2.8 percent higher in September year over year, and ERS forecasts a 5.8 percent increase for 2026. There may be more pressure ahead: farm-level vegetable prices were 29.6 percent higher in September than a year earlier. One example from October’s report: lettuce rose 7.9 percent in the month, per a market-data summary of the CPI.

Fresh fruit. Fresh fruit prices were 4.9 percent higher in September than a year earlier, and ERS forecasts a 2.9 percent rise for the full year.

Fish and seafood. In August, fish and seafood prices were 6.5 percent higher than a year earlier. ERS lists it among categories forecast to rise faster than their historical average.

Snacks and “other food at home.” In October, the other food at home index increased 0.7 percent, with snacks up 1.0 percent.

A category to watch: wheat-based foods. Farm-level wheat prices were 49.8 percent higher in September than a year earlier, tied to a projected large decline in U.S. wheat output, and ERS forecasts a 22.6 percent rise for 2026. ERS notes that retail prices typically lag producer prices, so bread, pasta and baked goods could face upward pressure later, though ERS currently forecasts cereal and bakery products to grow slower than their historical average.

5. What is getting cheaper?

Not everything is rising, and that is useful for budgeting:

• Eggs: Eggs were 20.6 percent cheaper in September than a year earlier, and ERS forecasts a 29.3 percent decline for 2026 as egg production recovers after avian flu outbreaks.
• Dairy: Dairy was 0.7 percent lower year over year, with a 0.4 percent decline forecast for 2026.
• Pork and poultry: Pork was down 0.7 percent year over year in September, and poultry was up only 1.1 percent.

6. Thanksgiving 2026

Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26, 2026. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual dinner survey is the usual benchmark. Its 2025 survey put a classic dinner for 10 at $55.18, or about $5.52 per person, with a 16-pound frozen turkey at $21.50.

7. Practical ways to cope

1. Swap cuts and proteins. With pork, poultry and eggs relatively stable or cheaper, they can offset beef costs.
2. Buy coffee in bulk or on sale. If futures keep easing, shelf prices may follow, so avoid overstocking at today’s price.
3. Choose in-season produce. Vegetable and fruit prices swing with season and weather.
4. Cook at home more. Restaurant prices (up 3.5 percent year over year) are rising faster than grocery prices.
5. Compare unit prices. Store brands often cost less per ounce.
6. Watch the next data. The BLS November CPI is scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. ERS typically updates its outlook around the 25th of each month.

Official and verified sources

Frequently asked questions